Araştırma Makalesi
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Türkiye’de Otomobil Talebinin Rasyonel ve İrrasyonel Dinamikleri

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1, 43 - 61, 30.06.2020
https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.591866

Öz

Ulaşım ve taşıma ihtiyaçlarını karşılamak için icat edilen otomobil zaman içerisinde satış sayılarını artırmış ve günlük hayatın vazgeçilmezlerinden olmuştur; ancak çeşitli etkenler nedeniyle otomobil talebi dönemler boyunca dalgalı bir seyir izlemiştir. Bu çalışma Türkiye’deki otomobil talebini etkileyen rasyonel ve irrasyonel dinamikleri tartışmayı, rasyonel dinamik olarak kabul edilen makroekonomik değişkenlerin otomobil talebi üzerindeki etkisini ARDL yaklaşımıyla analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular Türkiye'de otomobil talebini etkileyen en önemli değişkenlerin, işsizlik, otomobil fiyatları ve enflasyon olduğunu göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Akay, E. Ç. and Tümsel, B. (2015).Hanehalkı Otomobil Sahipliğinin İncelenmesi: Ardışık Logit Modeli. Social Sciences Research Journal, 4(4), 35-45.
  • Allan, G. and Hansen, B. (1996). Tests for cointegration in models with regime and trend shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
  • Alper, C.E. and Mumcu, A. (2000). Türkiye’de Otomobil Talebinin Tahmini. Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Babatsou, C. and Zervas, E. (2011). EU Socioeconomic Indicators and Car Market. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 59, 111-116.
  • Brown, R. L.. Durbin J. and Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 37(2), 149-192.
  • Dargay, J. and Sommer, M., (2007). Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide:1960-2030. Energy Journal, 28(4), 143-170.
  • Duesenberry, J. S. (1962). Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • Duruiz, L. and Erdem, O. (2015). An Unsaturated Passenger Car Market in an Emerging Economy: The Case of Turkey. Global Automotive Demand-Major Trends in Emerging Economies Volume 2. London: Palgrave MacMillan. Ch.9.
  • Eken, H. and Çiçek, M. (2009). Türkiye’de Otomotiv Sektöründeki Ürünlerin Kredilerle Finansmanının Satışlara Etkisi. Maliye Finans Yazıları, 84, 61-77.
  • Engle, R.F., and Granger C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica. 55(2), 251–276.
  • Erdem, C. and Nazlioglu, S. (2013). Determinants of new vehicle registrations in EU countries: a panel cointegration analysis. Transportation Planning and Technology, 36(3), 287-298, DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2013.779475European Automobile Manufacturers Association 2017 The Automobile Industry Pocket Guide https://www.acea.be/statistics/tag/category/vehicles-per-capita-by-country/
  • Fleet Europehttps://www.fleeteurope.com/en/financial-models/europe/features/depreciation-league-table-different-countries-different-values?a=JMA06&t%5B0%5D=Carspring&t%5B1%5D=TCO&t%5B2%5D=Finance&curl=1
  • Karaatlı, M., Helvacıoğlu, Ö.C., Ömürbek, N. and Tokgöz, G. (2012). Yapay Sinir Ağları Yöntemi ile Otomobil Satış Tahmini. International Journal of Management Economics and Business. 8(17), 87-100.
  • Karoui, S. and Khemakhem, R. (2018). Veblen, The First Marketing and Consumer Behavior Theorist. SSRN Electronic Journal.
  • Kilian, L. and Sims, E. (2006). The Effects of Real Gasoline Prices on Automobile Demand: A Structural Analysis Using Micro Data. University of Michigan, unpublished manuscript.
  • Nanaki, E.A. (2018) Measuring the Impact of Economic Crisis to the Greek Vehicle Market. Sustainability. 10(510).
  • Odd 2019 http://www.odd.org.tr/folders/2837/categorial1docs/2344/Bas%c4%b1n%20B%c3%bclteni%2017%20Ocak%202019.pdf
  • ODD: Otomotiv Distribütörleri Derneği, 2017. http://www.odd.org.tr/web_2837_1/wf_docudownload.aspx?primary_id=1727&type=36&target=categorial1
  • Official Gazzette, 2018 http://www.resmigazete.gov.tr/eskiler/2018/12/20181231M3-7.htm
  • OICA: Organization of Motor Vehicle Producers, 2017. http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads//pc-sales-2016.pdf
  • Orazio P. A., Goldberg P. K. and Kyriazidou, E. (2008). Credit Constraints In The Market For Consumer Durables: Evidence From Micro Data On Car Loans. International Economic Review, 49(2), 401-436.
  • Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (1995). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics. 9514.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J., (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Pişkin, S. (2017). Türkiye Otomotiv Sanayii Rekabet Gücü ve Talep Dinamikleri Perspektifinde 2020 İç Pazar Beklentileri. TSKB Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10.
  • Smusin, V. and Makayeva, N., (2009). Short-run Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Car Sales. Modern Management Research Conference (MMRC), University of Management and Economics, ISM.
  • Tepav, 2013. Dünya ve Türkiye Otomotiv Sektörü 2013, Türkiye Ekonomi Politikaları Araştırma Vakfı. www.odd.org.tr/folders/2837/categorial1docs/821/ic%20dokumanlar.pdf
  • Turkish Statistical Institute 2019 https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=89&locale=tr
  • Veblen, T. (1994), The Theory of the Leisure Class (New Edition ed.). N.p.: Dover Publications.
  • Vogelvang, B. (2005), Econometrics Theory and Applications with EViews. Prentice Hall.
  • Zeng, Y., Schmitz, H., and Madlener, R. (2018). An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Passenger Vehicle Sales in Germany. FCN Working Paper No.6/2018 Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior, RWTH Aachen University.

Rational and Irrational Dynamics of Automobile Demand in Turkey

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1, 43 - 61, 30.06.2020
https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.591866

Öz

The automobile, which was invented for the purpose of carrying passengers and freight, with the increase in sales, it has become an indispensable part of daily life. However, due to various factors, automobile demand fluctuated throughout the periods. This study discusses rational and irrational dynamics affecting the demand for automobiles in Turkey and it aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables on automobile demand by using ARDL approach. The findings show that the most important variables affecting the demand for automobiles in Turkey are unemployment, car prices and in short term is inflation.

Kaynakça

  • Akay, E. Ç. and Tümsel, B. (2015).Hanehalkı Otomobil Sahipliğinin İncelenmesi: Ardışık Logit Modeli. Social Sciences Research Journal, 4(4), 35-45.
  • Allan, G. and Hansen, B. (1996). Tests for cointegration in models with regime and trend shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
  • Alper, C.E. and Mumcu, A. (2000). Türkiye’de Otomobil Talebinin Tahmini. Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Babatsou, C. and Zervas, E. (2011). EU Socioeconomic Indicators and Car Market. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 59, 111-116.
  • Brown, R. L.. Durbin J. and Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 37(2), 149-192.
  • Dargay, J. and Sommer, M., (2007). Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide:1960-2030. Energy Journal, 28(4), 143-170.
  • Duesenberry, J. S. (1962). Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • Duruiz, L. and Erdem, O. (2015). An Unsaturated Passenger Car Market in an Emerging Economy: The Case of Turkey. Global Automotive Demand-Major Trends in Emerging Economies Volume 2. London: Palgrave MacMillan. Ch.9.
  • Eken, H. and Çiçek, M. (2009). Türkiye’de Otomotiv Sektöründeki Ürünlerin Kredilerle Finansmanının Satışlara Etkisi. Maliye Finans Yazıları, 84, 61-77.
  • Engle, R.F., and Granger C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica. 55(2), 251–276.
  • Erdem, C. and Nazlioglu, S. (2013). Determinants of new vehicle registrations in EU countries: a panel cointegration analysis. Transportation Planning and Technology, 36(3), 287-298, DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2013.779475European Automobile Manufacturers Association 2017 The Automobile Industry Pocket Guide https://www.acea.be/statistics/tag/category/vehicles-per-capita-by-country/
  • Fleet Europehttps://www.fleeteurope.com/en/financial-models/europe/features/depreciation-league-table-different-countries-different-values?a=JMA06&t%5B0%5D=Carspring&t%5B1%5D=TCO&t%5B2%5D=Finance&curl=1
  • Karaatlı, M., Helvacıoğlu, Ö.C., Ömürbek, N. and Tokgöz, G. (2012). Yapay Sinir Ağları Yöntemi ile Otomobil Satış Tahmini. International Journal of Management Economics and Business. 8(17), 87-100.
  • Karoui, S. and Khemakhem, R. (2018). Veblen, The First Marketing and Consumer Behavior Theorist. SSRN Electronic Journal.
  • Kilian, L. and Sims, E. (2006). The Effects of Real Gasoline Prices on Automobile Demand: A Structural Analysis Using Micro Data. University of Michigan, unpublished manuscript.
  • Nanaki, E.A. (2018) Measuring the Impact of Economic Crisis to the Greek Vehicle Market. Sustainability. 10(510).
  • Odd 2019 http://www.odd.org.tr/folders/2837/categorial1docs/2344/Bas%c4%b1n%20B%c3%bclteni%2017%20Ocak%202019.pdf
  • ODD: Otomotiv Distribütörleri Derneği, 2017. http://www.odd.org.tr/web_2837_1/wf_docudownload.aspx?primary_id=1727&type=36&target=categorial1
  • Official Gazzette, 2018 http://www.resmigazete.gov.tr/eskiler/2018/12/20181231M3-7.htm
  • OICA: Organization of Motor Vehicle Producers, 2017. http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads//pc-sales-2016.pdf
  • Orazio P. A., Goldberg P. K. and Kyriazidou, E. (2008). Credit Constraints In The Market For Consumer Durables: Evidence From Micro Data On Car Loans. International Economic Review, 49(2), 401-436.
  • Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (1995). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics. 9514.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J., (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Pişkin, S. (2017). Türkiye Otomotiv Sanayii Rekabet Gücü ve Talep Dinamikleri Perspektifinde 2020 İç Pazar Beklentileri. TSKB Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10.
  • Smusin, V. and Makayeva, N., (2009). Short-run Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Car Sales. Modern Management Research Conference (MMRC), University of Management and Economics, ISM.
  • Tepav, 2013. Dünya ve Türkiye Otomotiv Sektörü 2013, Türkiye Ekonomi Politikaları Araştırma Vakfı. www.odd.org.tr/folders/2837/categorial1docs/821/ic%20dokumanlar.pdf
  • Turkish Statistical Institute 2019 https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=89&locale=tr
  • Veblen, T. (1994), The Theory of the Leisure Class (New Edition ed.). N.p.: Dover Publications.
  • Vogelvang, B. (2005), Econometrics Theory and Applications with EViews. Prentice Hall.
  • Zeng, Y., Schmitz, H., and Madlener, R. (2018). An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Passenger Vehicle Sales in Germany. FCN Working Paper No.6/2018 Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior, RWTH Aachen University.
Toplam 30 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Volkan Kaymaz 0000-0001-7556-9507

Avni Aykutalp Akdağ Bu kişi benim 0000-0002-2600-0784

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Kaymaz, V., & Akdağ, A. A. (2020). Rational and Irrational Dynamics of Automobile Demand in Turkey. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(1), 43-61. https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.591866
AMA Kaymaz V, Akdağ AA. Rational and Irrational Dynamics of Automobile Demand in Turkey. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. Haziran 2020;10(1):43-61. doi:10.18074/ckuiibfd.591866
Chicago Kaymaz, Volkan, ve Avni Aykutalp Akdağ. “Rational and Irrational Dynamics of Automobile Demand in Turkey”. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 10, sy. 1 (Haziran 2020): 43-61. https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.591866.
EndNote Kaymaz V, Akdağ AA (01 Haziran 2020) Rational and Irrational Dynamics of Automobile Demand in Turkey. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 10 1 43–61.
IEEE V. Kaymaz ve A. A. Akdağ, “Rational and Irrational Dynamics of Automobile Demand in Turkey”, Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, c. 10, sy. 1, ss. 43–61, 2020, doi: 10.18074/ckuiibfd.591866.
ISNAD Kaymaz, Volkan - Akdağ, Avni Aykutalp. “Rational and Irrational Dynamics of Automobile Demand in Turkey”. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 10/1 (Haziran 2020), 43-61. https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.591866.
JAMA Kaymaz V, Akdağ AA. Rational and Irrational Dynamics of Automobile Demand in Turkey. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2020;10:43–61.
MLA Kaymaz, Volkan ve Avni Aykutalp Akdağ. “Rational and Irrational Dynamics of Automobile Demand in Turkey”. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, c. 10, sy. 1, 2020, ss. 43-61, doi:10.18074/ckuiibfd.591866.
Vancouver Kaymaz V, Akdağ AA. Rational and Irrational Dynamics of Automobile Demand in Turkey. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2020;10(1):43-61.